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İSTANBUL’UN İLÇELERİNDE OLASI DEPREM RİSKİNİN FINE-KINNEY YÖNTEMİYLE ARAŞTIRILMASI

Year 2023, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 139 - 151, 29.12.2023

Taner Ersöz Gürkan Bayrak

Abstract

Depremler geçmişten günümüze kadar insan hayatını olumsuz bir şekilde etkilemiştir. Gün geçtikçe artan nüfus ve inşa edilen yapıların artması deprem riskini giderek arttırmaktadır. Bu çalışmada İstanbul’da yaşanacak olası bir depremin risk analizi yapılmıştır. Bu çalışmada ilçelerin fay hattına olan uzaklıkları, İstanbul’daki binaların yapım yılları ve yaklaşık 120 yıldır İstanbul ve çevresinde Mw>4 olan depremler veri olarak toplanmıştır. Veriler AFAD (Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığı) ve İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediyesi Deprem ve Zemin İnceleme Şube Müdürlüğü’nden alınmıştır. Risk analizi için Fine-Kinney metodu kullanılmıştır. Fine-Kinney metodu hesaplanırken olasılık, frekans ve şiddet değerlerinin çarpımı sonucunda risk sınıfı ortaya çıkmaktadır. Yapılan çalışmada Fine-Kinney metodundaki olasılık değerinin hesaplanması için ilçelerin fay hattına olan uzaklıkları, frekans değeri olarak geçmişte yaşanan 268 adet deprem ve şiddet değerinin hesaplanması için ilçelerde olan binaların yapım yılları ele alınmıştır. Yapılan risk analizi sonucunda İstanbul’daki 39 adet ilçe risk puanlarına göre çok yüksek risk, yüksek risk, önemli risk, olası risk ve kabul edilebilir risk olarak sınıflandırılmıştır. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre Bahçelievler, Bakırköy, Beylikdüzü, Kartal, Zeytinburnu ilçeleri çok yüksek riske sahip ilçeler olarak bulunmuştur.

Keywords

Deprem Sismik Risk İstanbul İlçeler Fine-Kinney Risk Yöntemi

References

  • AFAD (The Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency). 06 February 2023 Pazarcık-Elbistan Kahramanmaras (Mw: 7.7–Mw:7.6) Depremleri Raporu. Access Date:10.09.2023. https://deprem.afad.gov.tr/assets/pdf/Kahramanmara%C5%9F%20Depremi%20%20Raporu_02.06.2023.pdf
  • AFAD, IRAP (Istanbul Il Afet Risk Azaltma Planı), (2022). Access Date:13.08.2022. https://istanbul.afad.gov.tr/kurumlar/istanbul.afad/PDF-Dosyalar/irap_istanbul.pdf
  • AFAD, Ulusal Deprem Stratejisi ve Eylem Planı 2012-2023. (UDSEP, 2023). Access Date:17.10.2023. https://deprem.afad.gov.tr/assets/udsep/UDSEP2023.pdf
  • BBC Istanbul News, 2019. Istanbul beklenen 'buyuk depreme' hazir mi? Access Date: 12.04.2023 https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-turkiye-49342666
  • Bohnhoff, M., Bulut, F., Dresen, G. Malin, P., Eken, T., Aktar, M., 2013. An earthquake gap south of Istanbul Nature Communications, Ar.Num 4. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2999
  • Burton, P., Qin, C., Tselentis, A., Sokos, E., 2004. Extreme Earthquake and Earthquake Perceptibility Study in Greece and its Surrounding Area. Natural Hazards, 32, 277-312. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000035545.89097.0d
  • CDP, 2023, Turkey-Syria Earthquake. Access Date: 23.09.2023. https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/2023-turkey-syria-earthquake/.
  • Ersoz, F., Ersoz.T., Kivrak, O., Kardes., S., 2016. Kuzey Anadolu fay hatti uzerinde yer alan Karabuk ili ve cevresinde meydana gelen depremlerin veri madenciligi ve istatistiksel yontemlerle incelenmesi. Journal of International Social Research, 9. 353-363. DOI: 10.17719/jisr.2016.1383. https://www.sosyalarastirmalar.com/articles/the-investigation-of-the-earthquake-occured-in-the-province-and-theenviroment-of-karabuk-residing-on-the-north-anatolian.pdf
  • Géli, L., Henry, P., Grall, C. and et al., 2018. Gas and seismicity within the Istanbul seismic gap. Scientific Reports, 8, 6819. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-23536-7
  • Generali Sigorta. Riskli Bolgeleri Taniyalim: Turkiye Deprem Haritasi 2021. Access Date: 13.07.2022 https://www.generali.com.tr/sigorta-rehberi/zorunlu-deprem-sigortasi/riskli-bolgeleri-taniyalim-turkiye-deprem-haritasi
  • Gourain, Y., 2022. Containing the earthquake risk in Istanbul’s city planning: perspectives from scientists. SHS Web of Conferences, 136, 03002. https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202213603002
  • Guven, I.T., Gercek, D., 2017. Degirmen dere’nin CBS Tabanlı Deprem Risk ve Erisebilirlik Analizi. Resilience, 1 (1),31-45. https://doi.org/10.32569/resilience.364276
  • Kinney, G.F., Wiruth, A.D., 1976. Practical risk analysis for safety management. NWC Technical publication 5865, Naval Weapons Center, China Lake CA, USA.
  • Kivrak, O., Ersoz, F., Ersoz, T., 2018a. Karabuk Ilinde Deprem Farkındalıgına Yonelik Deprem Egitiminin Ogrenciler Uzerindeki Etkisinin Arastirilmasi. 1. Uluslararası Afet Yonetimi Kongresi. Congress Proceedings Book. 478-488. https://www.academia.edu/109795380/Karab%C3%BCk_%C4%B0lindeDepremFark%C4%B1ndal%C4%B1%C4%9F%C4%B1naY%C3%B6nelikDepremE%C4%9Fitiminin%C3%96%C4%9Frenciler%C3%9CzerindekiEtkisininAra%C5%9Ft%C4%B1r%C4%B1lmas%C4%B1
  • Kivrak, O., Ersoz, T., Ersoz, F., 2018b. Deprem Guvenirlilik Gecerlilik. 1. Uluslararası Afet Yonetimi Kongresi. Congress Proceedings Book. 489-496. https://www.academia.edu/105581587/DepremG%C3%BCvenirlilikGe%C3%A7erlilik
  • Knopoff, L., 1996. Earthquake prediction: the scientific challenge. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 93(9), 3719-3720. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.93.9.3719
  • Kulkarni, R., 2012. A Review of Application of Data Mining in Earthquake Prediction. International Journal of Computer Science and Information Technology (IJCSIT).
  • Kundak, S., Turkoglu, H., 2007. Istanbul'da deprem riski analizi. İTU Dergisi, Seri A: Mimarlik, Planlama, Tasarim, 6, 37- 46. https://search.trdizin.gov.tr/tr/yayin/detay/73054
  • Li, L., Shi, Y., Cheng, S., 2022. Exploration of long short-term memory neural network in intermediate earthquake forecast: A case study in Sichuan-Yunnan region. Chinese Journal Geophysics, Chin, Ed, 65, 12–25. http://www.geophy.cn/en/article/doi/10.6038/cjg2022Q0521
  • Li, Z., Meier, M., Hauksson, E., Zhan, Z., Andrews, J., 2018. Machine Learning Seismic Wave Discrimination: Application to Earthquake Early Warning. Geophysical Research Letters. 45, 4773 – 4779. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077870
  • Mining Technical and Exploration General Directorate (MTA). Diri fay ve paleosismoloji arastirmalari. Access Date: 09.02.2020). https://www.mta.gov.tr/v3.0/arastirmalar/diri-fay-ve-paleosismoloji-arastirmalari.
  • PaintMaps. Automate Manual Processes. Access Date: 11.05.2019. https://paintmaps.com.
  • Parsons, T., Toda, S., Stein, R.S., Barka, A., Dieterich, J.H., 2000. Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation. Science, 288(5466), 661–665. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3075061
  • Pura, T., Gunes, P., Gunes, A., Hameed, A.A., 2023. Earthquake prediction for the Duzce province in the Marmara region using artificial intelligence. Applied Sciences,13, 8642. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13158642
  • Rouet-Leduc, B., Hulbert, C., Lubbers, N., Barros, K., Humphreys, C., Johnson, P., 2017. Machine Learning Predicts Laboratory Earthquakes. Geophysical Research Letters, 44. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074677
  • Sibson, R.,1994. Crustal stress, faulting and fluid flow. Geological Society, London, Special Publications. 78. 69-84. https://doi.org/10.1144/gsl.sp.1994.078.01.07
  • Sonmez, M., 2014. Cografi bilgi sistemleri (CBS) tabanli deprem hasar riski analizi: Zeytinburnu (İstanbul) ornegi. Turk Cografya Dergisi, 0 (56), 11-22. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/tcd/issue/21225/227787
  • Tang, L., Zhang, M., Wen, L., 2020. Support vector machine classification ofseismic events in the Tianshan orogenicbelt. Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth,125, e2019JB018132. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB018132
  • Turkish Chamber of Mechanical Engineers (TMMO). 1900 Sonrasi Turkiye’deki Depremler. Access Date: 12.09.2021. http://www1.mmo.org.tr/resimler/dosya_ekler/8273773702779a0_ek.pdf
  • USGS Government. Earthquake facts and Earthquake fantasy. Access Date: 23.05.2023. https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/earthquake-facts-earthquake-fantasy
  • UTNEWS. AI-Driven Earthquake Forecasting Shows Promise in Trials. Access Date: 15.10.2023. https://news.utexas.edu/2023/10/05/ai-driven-earthquake-forecasting-shows-promise-in-trials/
  • Wyss, M., Aceves, R.L., Park, S.K., Geller, R.J., Jackson, D.D., Kagan, Y.Y., Mulargia, F., 1997. Cannot Earthquakes be Predicted? Science, 278, (5337), 487–490. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2894929
  • Yair S., Nathan, I., 1998. Classification of seismic signals by integrating ensembles of neural networks. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 46(5):1194-1201. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/668782

INVESTIGATION OF POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE RISK IN DISTRICTS OF ISTANBUL USING THE FINE-KINNEY METHOD

Year 2023, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 139 - 151, 29.12.2023

Taner Ersöz Gürkan Bayrak

Abstract

Earthquakes have negatively affected countries socially, economically, and demographically throughout history. The increase in population and the construction of buildings that do not comply with legal regulations will significantly increase the impact of the consequences of the earthquake. In this research, the possible earthquake risk that may occur in Istanbul was calculated. The data collected for this study are the distances of the districts to the fault line, the construction years of the buildings in Istanbul, and the earthquakes with Mw>4 in Istanbul and its surroundings for approximately 120 years. These data were taken from AFAD and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Earthquake and Soil Investigation Branch Directorate. Fine-Kinney method (FKM), one of the risk assessment methods, was used in risk calculation. Earthquake intensity, frequency and probability values were used in analysis calculations. In the study, while calculating the probability value in the Fine-Kinney method, the distances of the districts to the fault line were considered, and the frequency value of 268 earthquakes in the past and the construction years of the buildings in the districts were calculated. density value. As a result of the risk analysis, 39 districts in Istanbul were classified as very high risk, high risk, significant risk, possible risk and acceptable risk according to their risk scores. According to the results of the research, Adalar, Bahcelievler, Bakirkoy, Beylikduzu, Kartal, Zeytinburnu districts have the highest risk.

Keywords

Earthquake Seismic Risk Istanbul Districts Fine-Kinney Risk Method

References

  • AFAD (The Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency). 06 February 2023 Pazarcık-Elbistan Kahramanmaras (Mw: 7.7–Mw:7.6) Depremleri Raporu. Access Date:10.09.2023. https://deprem.afad.gov.tr/assets/pdf/Kahramanmara%C5%9F%20Depremi%20%20Raporu_02.06.2023.pdf
  • AFAD, IRAP (Istanbul Il Afet Risk Azaltma Planı), (2022). Access Date:13.08.2022. https://istanbul.afad.gov.tr/kurumlar/istanbul.afad/PDF-Dosyalar/irap_istanbul.pdf
  • AFAD, Ulusal Deprem Stratejisi ve Eylem Planı 2012-2023. (UDSEP, 2023). Access Date:17.10.2023. https://deprem.afad.gov.tr/assets/udsep/UDSEP2023.pdf
  • BBC Istanbul News, 2019. Istanbul beklenen 'buyuk depreme' hazir mi? Access Date: 12.04.2023 https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-turkiye-49342666
  • Bohnhoff, M., Bulut, F., Dresen, G. Malin, P., Eken, T., Aktar, M., 2013. An earthquake gap south of Istanbul Nature Communications, Ar.Num 4. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2999
  • Burton, P., Qin, C., Tselentis, A., Sokos, E., 2004. Extreme Earthquake and Earthquake Perceptibility Study in Greece and its Surrounding Area. Natural Hazards, 32, 277-312. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000035545.89097.0d
  • CDP, 2023, Turkey-Syria Earthquake. Access Date: 23.09.2023. https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/2023-turkey-syria-earthquake/.
  • Ersoz, F., Ersoz.T., Kivrak, O., Kardes., S., 2016. Kuzey Anadolu fay hatti uzerinde yer alan Karabuk ili ve cevresinde meydana gelen depremlerin veri madenciligi ve istatistiksel yontemlerle incelenmesi. Journal of International Social Research, 9. 353-363. DOI: 10.17719/jisr.2016.1383. https://www.sosyalarastirmalar.com/articles/the-investigation-of-the-earthquake-occured-in-the-province-and-theenviroment-of-karabuk-residing-on-the-north-anatolian.pdf
  • Géli, L., Henry, P., Grall, C. and et al., 2018. Gas and seismicity within the Istanbul seismic gap. Scientific Reports, 8, 6819. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-23536-7
  • Generali Sigorta. Riskli Bolgeleri Taniyalim: Turkiye Deprem Haritasi 2021. Access Date: 13.07.2022 https://www.generali.com.tr/sigorta-rehberi/zorunlu-deprem-sigortasi/riskli-bolgeleri-taniyalim-turkiye-deprem-haritasi
  • Gourain, Y., 2022. Containing the earthquake risk in Istanbul’s city planning: perspectives from scientists. SHS Web of Conferences, 136, 03002. https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202213603002
  • Guven, I.T., Gercek, D., 2017. Degirmen dere’nin CBS Tabanlı Deprem Risk ve Erisebilirlik Analizi. Resilience, 1 (1),31-45. https://doi.org/10.32569/resilience.364276
  • Kinney, G.F., Wiruth, A.D., 1976. Practical risk analysis for safety management. NWC Technical publication 5865, Naval Weapons Center, China Lake CA, USA.
  • Kivrak, O., Ersoz, F., Ersoz, T., 2018a. Karabuk Ilinde Deprem Farkındalıgına Yonelik Deprem Egitiminin Ogrenciler Uzerindeki Etkisinin Arastirilmasi. 1. Uluslararası Afet Yonetimi Kongresi. Congress Proceedings Book. 478-488. https://www.academia.edu/109795380/Karab%C3%BCk_%C4%B0lindeDepremFark%C4%B1ndal%C4%B1%C4%9F%C4%B1naY%C3%B6nelikDepremE%C4%9Fitiminin%C3%96%C4%9Frenciler%C3%9CzerindekiEtkisininAra%C5%9Ft%C4%B1r%C4%B1lmas%C4%B1
  • Kivrak, O., Ersoz, T., Ersoz, F., 2018b. Deprem Guvenirlilik Gecerlilik. 1. Uluslararası Afet Yonetimi Kongresi. Congress Proceedings Book. 489-496. https://www.academia.edu/105581587/DepremG%C3%BCvenirlilikGe%C3%A7erlilik
  • Knopoff, L., 1996. Earthquake prediction: the scientific challenge. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 93(9), 3719-3720. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.93.9.3719
  • Kulkarni, R., 2012. A Review of Application of Data Mining in Earthquake Prediction. International Journal of Computer Science and Information Technology (IJCSIT).
  • Kundak, S., Turkoglu, H., 2007. Istanbul'da deprem riski analizi. İTU Dergisi, Seri A: Mimarlik, Planlama, Tasarim, 6, 37- 46. https://search.trdizin.gov.tr/tr/yayin/detay/73054
  • Li, L., Shi, Y., Cheng, S., 2022. Exploration of long short-term memory neural network in intermediate earthquake forecast: A case study in Sichuan-Yunnan region. Chinese Journal Geophysics, Chin, Ed, 65, 12–25. http://www.geophy.cn/en/article/doi/10.6038/cjg2022Q0521
  • Li, Z., Meier, M., Hauksson, E., Zhan, Z., Andrews, J., 2018. Machine Learning Seismic Wave Discrimination: Application to Earthquake Early Warning. Geophysical Research Letters. 45, 4773 – 4779. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077870
  • Mining Technical and Exploration General Directorate (MTA). Diri fay ve paleosismoloji arastirmalari. Access Date: 09.02.2020). https://www.mta.gov.tr/v3.0/arastirmalar/diri-fay-ve-paleosismoloji-arastirmalari.
  • PaintMaps. Automate Manual Processes. Access Date: 11.05.2019. https://paintmaps.com.
  • Parsons, T., Toda, S., Stein, R.S., Barka, A., Dieterich, J.H., 2000. Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation. Science, 288(5466), 661–665. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3075061
  • Pura, T., Gunes, P., Gunes, A., Hameed, A.A., 2023. Earthquake prediction for the Duzce province in the Marmara region using artificial intelligence. Applied Sciences,13, 8642. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13158642
  • Rouet-Leduc, B., Hulbert, C., Lubbers, N., Barros, K., Humphreys, C., Johnson, P., 2017. Machine Learning Predicts Laboratory Earthquakes. Geophysical Research Letters, 44. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074677
  • Sibson, R.,1994. Crustal stress, faulting and fluid flow. Geological Society, London, Special Publications. 78. 69-84. https://doi.org/10.1144/gsl.sp.1994.078.01.07
  • Sonmez, M., 2014. Cografi bilgi sistemleri (CBS) tabanli deprem hasar riski analizi: Zeytinburnu (İstanbul) ornegi. Turk Cografya Dergisi, 0 (56), 11-22. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/tcd/issue/21225/227787
  • Tang, L., Zhang, M., Wen, L., 2020. Support vector machine classification ofseismic events in the Tianshan orogenicbelt. Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth,125, e2019JB018132. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB018132
  • Turkish Chamber of Mechanical Engineers (TMMO). 1900 Sonrasi Turkiye’deki Depremler. Access Date: 12.09.2021. http://www1.mmo.org.tr/resimler/dosya_ekler/8273773702779a0_ek.pdf
  • USGS Government. Earthquake facts and Earthquake fantasy. Access Date: 23.05.2023. https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/earthquake-facts-earthquake-fantasy
  • UTNEWS. AI-Driven Earthquake Forecasting Shows Promise in Trials. Access Date: 15.10.2023. https://news.utexas.edu/2023/10/05/ai-driven-earthquake-forecasting-shows-promise-in-trials/
  • Wyss, M., Aceves, R.L., Park, S.K., Geller, R.J., Jackson, D.D., Kagan, Y.Y., Mulargia, F., 1997. Cannot Earthquakes be Predicted? Science, 278, (5337), 487–490. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2894929
  • Yair S., Nathan, I., 1998. Classification of seismic signals by integrating ensembles of neural networks. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 46(5):1194-1201. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/668782
There are 33 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Earthquake Engineering
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Taner Ersöz 0000-0001-5523-5120

Gürkan Bayrak 0009-0000-3657-1866

Early Pub Date December 27, 2023
Publication Date December 29, 2023
Submission Date November 27, 2023
Acceptance Date December 6, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 7 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Ersöz, T., & Bayrak, G. (2023). INVESTIGATION OF POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE RISK IN DISTRICTS OF ISTANBUL USING THE FINE-KINNEY METHOD. Uluslararası Sürdürülebilir Mühendislik Ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 7(2), 139-151.
AMA Ersöz T, Bayrak G. INVESTIGATION OF POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE RISK IN DISTRICTS OF ISTANBUL USING THE FINE-KINNEY METHOD. Sistem Güncelleme. December 2023;7(2):139-151.
Chicago Ersöz, Taner, and Gürkan Bayrak. “INVESTIGATION OF POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE RISK IN DISTRICTS OF ISTANBUL USING THE FINE-KINNEY METHOD”. Uluslararası Sürdürülebilir Mühendislik Ve Teknoloji Dergisi 7, no. 2 (December 2023): 139-51.
EndNote Ersöz T, Bayrak G (December 1, 2023) INVESTIGATION OF POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE RISK IN DISTRICTS OF ISTANBUL USING THE FINE-KINNEY METHOD. Uluslararası Sürdürülebilir Mühendislik ve Teknoloji Dergisi 7 2 139–151.
IEEE T. Ersöz and G. Bayrak, “INVESTIGATION OF POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE RISK IN DISTRICTS OF ISTANBUL USING THE FINE-KINNEY METHOD”, Sistem Güncelleme, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 139–151, 2023.
ISNAD Ersöz, Taner - Bayrak, Gürkan. “INVESTIGATION OF POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE RISK IN DISTRICTS OF ISTANBUL USING THE FINE-KINNEY METHOD”. Uluslararası Sürdürülebilir Mühendislik ve Teknoloji Dergisi 7/2 (December 2023), 139-151.
JAMA Ersöz T, Bayrak G. INVESTIGATION OF POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE RISK IN DISTRICTS OF ISTANBUL USING THE FINE-KINNEY METHOD. Sistem Güncelleme. 2023;7:139–151.
MLA Ersöz, Taner and Gürkan Bayrak. “INVESTIGATION OF POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE RISK IN DISTRICTS OF ISTANBUL USING THE FINE-KINNEY METHOD”. Uluslararası Sürdürülebilir Mühendislik Ve Teknoloji Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 2, 2023, pp. 139-51.
Vancouver Ersöz T, Bayrak G. INVESTIGATION OF POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE RISK IN DISTRICTS OF ISTANBUL USING THE FINE-KINNEY METHOD. Sistem Güncelleme. 2023;7(2):139-51.
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